People's Bank of China: CNY policy rate
How this is computed
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
- The rate is the level the bank has set, from the BIS policy rate series or, where that series has stalled or lags a fresh decision, from the bank's own published register (named in the first figure).
- BIS publishes policy rates with a lag of several days. A decision made this week may not show yet, except where a fresher official source is wired (marked in the Source column).
- The 12-month cycle is the net change between the month-end level 12 months ago and the level now: positive is hiking, negative is cutting, zero is on hold. The counts are the changes recorded inside that window; a month-precision change can net several decisions made in one month.
- The next scheduled decision is shown only where Kresmion holds the bank's own calendar (the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar). For other banks it reads "not published" and the bank's calendar is linked.
- A Polymarket market is listed here only when its question names this bank and is about its policy rate. Prices are crowd prices, not a forecast by Kresmion.
People's Bank of China's 1-year loan prime rate was 3.00% as of 20 Oct 2026. Its last change was a 10 bp cut in May 2025, from 3.10%. Over the last 12 months the rate is unchanged on net.
As of . Sources: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), People's Bank of China (own publication). Method and limitations.
Policy rate history
month-end levels, Oct 2006 to Oct 2026Step line: the rate holds its level until the next change. Dots mark a month whose month-end level differs from the month before; hover one for the size of the move. The dashed last step is the level in force now, from a fresher official source; its month has not closed.
Next decision on Polymarket
prices in percent, not a forecastNo open Polymarket market on a single the People's Bank of China decision is stored right now.
Recent rate changes
dated to the day inside the daily window, else to the month; click a row to find it on the chart| May 2025 | -10 bp | 3.10% | 3.00% |
| Oct 2024 | -25 bp | 3.35% | 3.10% |
| Jul 2024 | -10 bp | 3.45% | 3.35% |
| Aug 2023 | -10 bp | 3.55% | 3.45% |
| Jun 2023 | -10 bp | 3.65% | 3.55% |
| Aug 2022 | -5 bp | 3.70% | 3.65% |
| Jan 2022 | -10 bp | 3.80% | 3.70% |
| Dec 2021 | -5 bp | 3.85% | 3.80% |
| Apr 2020 | -20 bp | 4.05% | 3.85% |
| Feb 2020 | -10 bp | 4.15% | 4.05% |
| Nov 2019 | -5 bp | 4.20% | 4.15% |
| Sep 2019 | -5 bp | 4.25% | 4.20% |
Other markets on this bank's rates
Polymarket, by volume; counts and year-end levels rather than one meeting; click a row for its marketNo other open market on this bank's rates is stored.
Official sources
the bank's own pages; its calendar is the authority on meeting datesOther currencies
every central bank with a page; the current one is markedCite this data
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
Upstream: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), People's Bank of China (own publication)
Kresmion, "People's Bank of China policy rate (CNY)", data as of 2026-10-20, https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/cny. Upstream data: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL); People's Bank of China (own publication).
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/cny">People's Bank of China policy rate (CNY) (Kresmion)</a>