Federal Reserve: USD policy rate
How this is computed
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
- The rate is the level the bank has set, from the BIS policy rate series or, where that series has stalled or lags a fresh decision, from the bank's own published register (named in the first figure).
- BIS publishes policy rates with a lag of several days. A decision made this week may not show yet, except where a fresher official source is wired (marked in the Source column).
- The 12-month cycle is the net change between the month-end level 12 months ago and the level now: positive is hiking, negative is cutting, zero is on hold. The counts are the changes recorded inside that window; a month-precision change can net several decisions made in one month.
- The next scheduled decision is shown only where Kresmion holds the bank's own calendar (the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar). For other banks it reads "not published" and the bank's calendar is linked.
- A Polymarket market is listed here only when its question names this bank and is about its policy rate. Prices are crowd prices, not a forecast by Kresmion.
Federal Reserve's Federal funds target (midpoint) was 3.88% as of 29 Oct 2026. Its last change was a 25 bp hike on 17 Sep 2026, from 3.63%. Over the last 12 months the rate is unchanged on net. The next scheduled decision is on 9 Dec 2026. On Polymarket, "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?" last priced at 70.5%.
As of . Sources: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar), FRED (Fed target range), Polymarket (rate decision market). Method and limitations.
Policy rate history
month-end levels, Oct 2006 to Oct 2026Step line: the rate holds its level until the next change. Dots mark a month whose month-end level differs from the month before; hover one for the size of the move. The dashed last step is the level in force now, from a fresher official source; its month has not closed.
Next decision on Polymarket
Fed Decision in December?; closes 9 Dec 2026; prices 30 Oct 2026 01:14 UTC- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?70.5%$2.0M
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?27.5%$2.1M
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?2.1%$1.1M
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?0.5%$1.9M
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?0.4%$1.7M
$8.9M traded across these outcomes. Each price is the last traded or quoted price of a Polymarket contract on that outcome; outcomes need not sum to exactly 100. Hover an outcome for its liquidity and last update; click it for its market page. A market's close date is the venue's schedule, not the bank's meeting date. Open on Polymarket
Recent rate changes
dated to the day inside the daily window, else to the month; click a row to find it on the chart| 17 Sep 2026 | +25 bp | 3.63% | 3.88% |
| Dec 2025 | -25 bp | 3.88% | 3.63% |
| Oct 2025 | -25 bp | 4.13% | 3.88% |
| Sep 2025 | -25 bp | 4.38% | 4.13% |
| Dec 2024 | -25 bp | 4.63% | 4.38% |
| Nov 2024 | -25 bp | 4.88% | 4.63% |
| Sep 2024 | -50 bp | 5.38% | 4.88% |
| Jul 2023 | +25 bp | 5.13% | 5.38% |
| May 2023 | +25 bp | 4.88% | 5.13% |
| Mar 2023 | +25 bp | 4.63% | 4.88% |
| Feb 2023 | +25 bp | 4.38% | 4.63% |
| Dec 2022 | +50 bp | 3.88% | 4.38% |
Other markets on this bank's rates
Polymarket, by volume; counts and year-end levels rather than one meeting; click a row for its market| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 97.5% | $9.3M |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | $5.3M |
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | $5.0M |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | $4.3M |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | $4.2M |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.1% | $4.2M |
Official sources
the bank's own pages; its calendar is the authority on meeting datesOther currencies
every central bank with a page; the current one is markedCite this data
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
Upstream: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar), FRED (Fed target range), Polymarket (rate decision market)
Kresmion, "Federal Reserve policy rate (USD)", data as of 2026-10-29, https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/usd. Upstream data: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL); Federal Reserve Board (FOMC calendar); FRED (Fed target range); Polymarket (rate decision market).
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/usd">Federal Reserve policy rate (USD) (Kresmion)</a>
What changed in each FOMC statement: FOMC statement changes