Bank of Japan: JPY policy rate
How this is computed
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
- The rate is the level the bank has set, from the BIS policy rate series or, where that series has stalled or lags a fresh decision, from the bank's own published register (named in the first figure).
- BIS publishes policy rates with a lag of several days. A decision made this week may not show yet, except where a fresher official source is wired (marked in the Source column).
- The 12-month cycle is the net change between the month-end level 12 months ago and the level now: positive is hiking, negative is cutting, zero is on hold. The counts are the changes recorded inside that window; a month-precision change can net several decisions made in one month.
- The next scheduled decision is shown only where Kresmion holds the bank's own calendar (the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar). For other banks it reads "not published" and the bank's calendar is linked.
- A Polymarket market is listed here only when its question names this bank and is about its policy rate. Prices are crowd prices, not a forecast by Kresmion.
Bank of Japan's Policy rate was 1.25% as of 20 Oct 2026. Its last change was a 25 bp hike on 24 Sep 2026, from 1.00%. Over the last 12 months the rate has moved +75 bp on net. On Polymarket, "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" last priced at 0.1%.
As of . Sources: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), Polymarket (rate decision market). Method and limitations.
Policy rate history
month-end levels, Oct 2006 to Sep 2026Step line: the rate holds its level until the next change. Dots mark a month whose month-end level differs from the month before; hover one for the size of the move.
Next decision on Polymarket
Bank of Japan Decision in October?; closes 30 Oct 2026; prices 30 Oct 2026 01:08 UTC$41K traded across these outcomes. Each price is the last traded or quoted price of a Polymarket contract on that outcome; outcomes need not sum to exactly 100. Hover an outcome for its liquidity and last update; click it for its market page. A market's close date is the venue's schedule, not the bank's meeting date. Open on Polymarket
Recent rate changes
dated to the day inside the daily window, else to the month; click a row to find it on the chart| 24 Sep 2026 | +25 bp | 1.00% | 1.25% |
| Jun 2026 | +25 bp | 0.75% | 1.00% |
| Dec 2025 | +25 bp | 0.50% | 0.75% |
| Jan 2025 | +25 bp | 0.25% | 0.50% |
| Aug 2024 | +20 bp | 0.05% | 0.25% |
| Mar 2024 | +15 bp | -0.10% | 0.05% |
| Sep 2016 | -15 bp | 0.05% | -0.10% |
| Oct 2010 | -5 bp | 0.10% | 0.05% |
| Dec 2008 | -20 bp | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| Oct 2008 | -20 bp | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| Feb 2007 | +25 bp | 0.25% | 0.50% |
Other markets on this bank's rates
Polymarket, by volume; counts and year-end levels rather than one meeting; click a row for its marketNo other open market on this bank's rates is stored.
Official sources
the bank's own pages; its calendar is the authority on meeting datesOther currencies
every central bank with a page; the current one is markedCite this data
Kresmion dates the last change from the stored policy-rate series (to the day inside the daily window, else to the month), computes the 12-month net change between two month-end levels, and lists a Polymarket market only when its question names this bank and its policy rate. Nothing here is a forecast by Kresmion.
Upstream: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), Polymarket (rate decision market)
Kresmion, "Bank of Japan policy rate (JPY)", data as of 2026-10-20, https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/jpy. Upstream data: BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL); Polymarket (rate decision market).
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/markets/forex/central-banks/jpy">Bank of Japan policy rate (JPY) (Kresmion)</a>