Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

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Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jul 19, 2026, this market has traded between 7 percent (Nov 3, 2026) and 37 percent (Jul 19, 2026), across 3,552 recorded prices. The current price of 8 percent is 4.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (13 percent), and 6.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (14 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 8 percent, with the NO outcome at 92 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2853074

Kresmion, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-11-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-december-31-983-117-222-252. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2853074.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-december-31-983-117-222-252">Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>

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