Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?" at 4% as of Nov 9, 2026, 16:00 UTC, down from 7% a week earlier.
Free account
Company filings, insider trades and macro, with a free account
A free account opens company statements built from SEC filings, where a reported number links to the filing it came from, plus insider and Congress trades, 13F holdings, macro and crypto pages and a weekly email on your watchlist. Free while we're in beta, no card.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 16, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Nov 9, 2026) and 12 percent (Oct 18, 2026), across 774 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 3.5 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (7 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 11% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 6% |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 4% |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 4% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5652759
Kresmion, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-11-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-november-30. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5652759.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-november-30">Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
Writing about this? Press contact and ready-to-quote figures
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with their sources, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-11-09 16:00 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.