Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?

"Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?" resolved No on Sep 17, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 17, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 17, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2661521. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 1, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Jul 1, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Jul 30, 2026) to 3% (Jul 21, 2026), across 1,808 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decrease...

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More macro markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled macro markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2661521

Kresmion, "Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-17, https://kresmion.com/odds/bank-of-england-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-september-2026-meeting-20260623013424713. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2661521.