PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 19, 2026
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?
Part of: Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?" resolved No on Sep 19, 2026; the market last priced it at 1% on Sep 19, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3562254. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 19, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 13, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 17, 2026) to 10% (Sep 16, 2026), across 57 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swed...
Other settled outcomes in this event
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More macro markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled macro markets
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3562254
Kresmion, "Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-19, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-moderate-party-m-win-at-least-20-of-all-valid-votes-20260812172636434. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3562254.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.