Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
Part of: Bank of Japan Decision in September?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 21, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?" at 84 percent YES, down 2.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $114K of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jun 25, 2026, this market has traded between 7 percent (Jul 19, 2026) and 89 percent (Aug 19, 2026), across 902 recorded prices. The current price of 84 percent is 3.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (81 percent), and 71.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (13 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | 30% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 14% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 36% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 43% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 76% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 84% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 84 percent, with the NO outcome at 16 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and tim...
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-21 03:57 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.