PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 18, 2026
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
Part of: Bank of Japan Decision in September?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?" resolved No on Sep 18, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 18, 2026, and at 1% seven days earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589855. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 2, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 2, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 18, 2026) to 2% (Sep 8, 2026), across 555 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and tim...
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More macro markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled macro markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589855
Kresmion, "Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-18, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-no-change-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724869. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589855.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.