Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?
Part of: Elon Musk # tweets August 27 - August 29, 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?" at 96 percent YES, up 43.5 points in the last 24 hours, on $50K of lifetime volume.
One message when it happens. Nothing else. No account needed.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 28, 2026, this market has traded between 72 percent (Aug 28, 2026) and 96 percent (Aug 29, 2026), across 10 recorded prices.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 96 percent, with the NO outcome at 4 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
More other markets
Live markets in the same category, priced by the same venue.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 04:54 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.