PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Oct 28, 2026
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Part of: Fed rate cut by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?" resolved No on Oct 28, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Oct 28, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 28, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 16, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Oct 28, 2026) to 2% (Sep 16, 2026), across 1,453 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 1% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 1% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More macro markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled macro markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1439550
Kresmion, "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-28, https://kresmion.com/odds/fed-rate-cut-by-october-2026-meeting-199-747. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1439550.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/fed-rate-cut-by-october-2026-meeting-199-747">Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.