Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Oct 6, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Oct 6, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Oct 29, 2026) to 24% (Oct 6, 2026), across 735 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is post...

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3081966

Kresmion, "Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-29, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-ecb-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-october-2026-meeting-20260723225848782. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3081966.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-ecb-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-october-2026-meeting-20260723225848782">Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>