PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Israel closes its airspace by July 31?" resolved No; the market last priced it below 1% on Aug 1, 2026, and at 20% seven days earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2555351. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jun 19, 2026 to Aug 1, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jun 19, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Aug 1, 2026) to 39% (Jul 24, 2026), across 463 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | 17% |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 12% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 28% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 7% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2555351
Kresmion, "Israel closes its airspace by July 31? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-08-01, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-july-31-287. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2555351.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
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