PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved YES · Sep 21, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?
Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?" resolved Yes on Sep 21, 2026; the market last priced it above 99% on Sep 21, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 4641062. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 18, 2026 to Sep 21, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 18, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 85% (Sep 20, 2026) to above 99% (Sep 21, 2026), across 78 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territoria...
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4641062
Kresmion, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-21, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-20-20260917. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4641062.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.