PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 18, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
Part of: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?" resolved No on Sep 18, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 18, 2026, and at 1% seven days earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3701629. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Aug 24, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Aug 24, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 16, 2026) to 18% (Aug 25, 2026), across 778 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminolo...
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3701629
Kresmion, "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-18, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-september-15. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3701629.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.