Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

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Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Oct 7, 2026, this market has traded between 53 percent (Oct 24, 2026) and 94 percent (Nov 9, 2026), across 1,204 recorded prices. The current price of 94 percent is 24.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (70 percent), and 17.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (76 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 93 percent and the best ask is 94 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $6K on the bid side and $8K on the ask side.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-11-09 16:12 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 94 percent, with the NO outcome at 6 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munit...

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Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5339986

Kresmion, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-11-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5339986.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15">Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>

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