Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" at 78% as of Nov 9, 2026, 15:54 UTC, up from 57% a week earlier.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 2, 2026, this market has traded between 37 percent (Oct 29, 2026) and 80 percent (Nov 9, 2026), across 2,264 recorded prices. The current price of 78 percent is 20.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (57 percent), and 14.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (64 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 64% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 68% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 68% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 72% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 71% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 64% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 61% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41% |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 54% |
| Nov 2, 2026 | 72% |
| Nov 9, 2026 | 78% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 77 percent and the best ask is 79 percent, a spread of 2.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.78 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $8K at the best bid and $2K at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-11-09 16:12 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 78 percent, with the NO outcome at 22 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munit...
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3902370
Kresmion, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-11-09, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3902370.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-30">Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-11-09 15:54 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.