Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Oct 5, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 46% (Oct 7, 2026) to 99% (Oct 11, 2026), across 198 recorded prices.

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact do...

Live markets in the same event

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

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Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 5167190

Kresmion, "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-11, https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-9. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 5167190.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-9">Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>