US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Polymarket traders priced "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" at 12% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:34 UTC, down from 16% a week earlier.

As of Sep 22, 2026, 15:34 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3128887. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Aug 1, 2026, this market has traded between 8 percent (Sep 19, 2026) and 90 percent (Aug 5, 2026), across 1,706 recorded prices. The current price of 12 percent is 4.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (16 percent), and 23.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (35 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 10 percent and the best ask is 11 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-09-22 15:45 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 12 percent, with the NO outcome at 88 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the block...

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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3128887

Kresmion, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3128887.