PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 8, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?" resolved No on Sep 8, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 8, 2026, and at 4% seven days earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3702025. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Aug 20, 2026 to Sep 8, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Aug 20, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 8, 2026) to 27% (Aug 25, 2026), across 617 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | 13% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the block...
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3702025
Kresmion, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-08, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-7-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3702025.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
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