US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" resolved No on Sep 1, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 1, 2026, and at 4% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 1, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3324625. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Aug 6, 2026 to Sep 1, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Aug 6, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 1, 2026) to 69% (Aug 6, 2026), across 850 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminolo...

Live markets in the same event

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3324625

Kresmion, "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-01, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-august-31-20260804000051471. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3324625.