Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?

"Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?" resolved Yes on Sep 16, 2026; the market last priced it above 99% on Sep 16, 2026, and at 13% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 16, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3840177. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 3, 2026 to Sep 16, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Sep 3, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 9% (Sep 10, 2026) to above 99% (Sep 16, 2026), across 425 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3840177

Kresmion, "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-16, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-september-15-2026-159-758. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3840177.