Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Part of: Largest Company end of December 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 12 percent YES, up 2.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $632K of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 23, 2026, this market has traded between 9 percent (Aug 18, 2026) and 23 percent (Aug 3, 2026), across 958 recorded prices. The current price of 12 percent is 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (11 percent), and 2.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (10 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | 10% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 16% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 13% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 11% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 10% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 12% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 12 percent, with the NO outcome at 88 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 17:39 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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