Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Part of: Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?" at 19% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:25 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Oct 3, 2026, this market has traded between 19 percent (Oct 3, 2026) and 22 percent (Oct 3, 2026), across 1,128 recorded prices. The current price of 19 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (19 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 19% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 19% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 19% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 19 percent, with the NO outcome at 81 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More finance markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4662694
Kresmion, "Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2028. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4662694.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2028">Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:25 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.