Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Part of: Anthropic IPO by __?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?" at 4% as of Sep 22, 2026, 16:04 UTC, down from 57% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2421094. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 31, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Sep 19, 2026) and 93 percent (Aug 28, 2026), across 1,818 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 53.8 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (57 percent), and 78.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (82 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 36% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 70% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 83% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 91% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 63% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 60% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More finance markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2421094
Kresmion, "Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-anthropic-ipo-by-october-31-2026-213. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2421094.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 16:04 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.