PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved YES · Sep 18, 2026
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?" resolved Yes on Sep 18, 2026; the market last priced it above 99% on Sep 18, 2026, and above 99% seven days earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 921947. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, May 16, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From May 16, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 88% (May 16, 2026) to above 99% (Sep 10, 2026), across 1,752 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | 88% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 97% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 97% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 97% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 97% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 98% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 99% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 99% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 99% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 100% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 100% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
More finance markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled finance markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 921947
Kresmion, "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-18, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 921947.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
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