Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Part of: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 30, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 16 percent YES, up 1.3 points in the last 24 hours, on $12.8M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 12 percent (Jul 14, 2026) and 17 percent (Aug 5, 2026), across 1,164 recorded prices. The current price of 16 percent is 1.3 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (15 percent), and 2.7 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (13 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 14% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 16% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 14% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 16% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 15% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 15% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 16% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 16 percent and the best ask is 16 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $302 on the bid side and $326 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-30 01:02 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 16 percent, with the NO outcome at 84 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-30 06:03 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.