PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved YES · Sep 15, 2026
Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Part of: What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will 'Instadocs: The Decoy Plane' be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" resolved Yes on Sep 15, 2026; the market last priced it above 99% on Sep 15, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 4427009. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 12, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 12, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 41% (Sep 13, 2026) to above 99% (Sep 15, 2026), across 95 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled other markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4427009
Kresmion, "Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-instadocs-the-decoy-plane-be-the-2-us-netflix-show-this-week-20260915. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4427009.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.