PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Sep 22, 2026
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
Part of: Next Claude Opus released on...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?" resolved No on Sep 22, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Sep 22, 2026.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627751. Method and limitations.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 22, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 21, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 22, 2026) to 86% (Sep 21, 2026), across 27 recorded prices.
How this market resolved
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
More other markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled other markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627751
Kresmion, "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-next-claude-opus-model-be-released-on-september-21-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4627751.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.