Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Part of: Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 28% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:39 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 919489. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 27, 2026, this market has traded between 28 percent (Sep 27, 2026) and 28 percent (Sep 30, 2026), across 198 recorded prices.
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 28 percent and the best ask is 29 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.28 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $510 at the best bid and $267 at the best ask.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-10-03 15:36 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 28 percent, with the NO outcome at 72 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authoriti...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 919489
Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-below-190-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 919489.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-below-190-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections">Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:39 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.