Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Part of: Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 6% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:39 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 919495. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 19, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Aug 10, 2026) and 11 percent (Sep 11, 2026), across 2,259 recorded prices. The current price of 6 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (6 percent), and 0.8 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (7 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 8% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 7% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 7% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 7% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 6% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 919495
Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-between-215-and-219-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 919495.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:39 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.