Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Part of: Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 15% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:39 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 919491. Method and limitations.
2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, order-book depth and 7-day moves.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 27, 2026, this market has traded between 13 percent (Sep 29, 2026) and 19 percent (Sep 27, 2026), across 198 recorded prices.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 15 percent, with the NO outcome at 85 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authoriti...
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 919491
Kresmion, "Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-republican-party-hold-between-195-and-199-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 919491.
Link to this data (HTML):
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-03 15:39 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.