Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

"Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" resolved No on Sep 1, 2026; the market last priced it at 2% on Sep 1, 2026, and at 9% seven days earlier.

As of settlement on Sep 1, 2026. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 3502066. Method and limitations.

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Aug 13, 2026 to Sep 1, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Aug 13, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 1% (Aug 31, 2026) to 33% (Aug 14, 2026), across 607 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3502066

Kresmion, "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-09-01, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-august-31-2026-20260810145737300. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3502066.