PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Oct 1, 2026
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Part of: Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?" resolved No on Oct 1, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Oct 1, 2026, and at 41% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
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Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 14, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Sep 14, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Oct 1, 2026) to 88% (Sep 22, 2026), across 562 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | 27% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 17% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 4487273
Kresmion, "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-01, https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-september-30. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 4487273.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-september-30">Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.