Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

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Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Sep 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Sep 2, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Nov 3, 2026) to 28% (Sep 11, 2026), across 2,214 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Live markets in the same event

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Other settled outcomes in this event

Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.

More geopolitics markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Recently settled geopolitics markets

Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3758964

Kresmion, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-11-08, https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3758964.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31">Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>

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