PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO · Oct 1, 2026
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Part of: Will Base launch a token by ___ ?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?" resolved No on Oct 1, 2026; the market last priced it below 1% on Oct 1, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 29, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jul 29, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Sep 29, 2026) to 6% (Jul 29, 2026), across 1,942 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled crypto markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2491342
Kresmion, "Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-01, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-base-launch-a-token-by-september-30-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2491342.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-base-launch-a-token-by-september-30-2026">Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.