Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Part of: Will Base launch a token by ___ ?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Sep 7, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?" at 1 percent YES, down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours, on $407K of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 29, 2026, this market has traded between 0 percent (Sep 3, 2026) and 6 percent (Jul 29, 2026), across 1,351 recorded prices. The current price of 1 percent is 1.1 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 1.9 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 3% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 1% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 1% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 1 percent and the best ask is 1 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-09-07 17:02 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 1 percent, with the NO outcome at 99 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-07 20:27 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.