Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Part of: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 48 percent YES, on $15.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 40 percent (Jul 18, 2026) and 48 percent (Aug 28, 2026), across 1,570 recorded prices. The current price of 48 percent is 0.6 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (47 percent), and 4.9 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (43 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 40% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 43% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 46% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 44% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 48% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 48 percent, with the NO outcome at 52 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:27 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
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