Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Part of: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 30, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 49 percent YES, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $15.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 40 percent (Jul 18, 2026) and 49 percent (Aug 29, 2026), across 1,603 recorded prices. The current price of 49 percent is 1.8 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (47 percent), and 6.2 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (43 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 40% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 43% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 46% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 44% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 49% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 49 percent and the best ask is 49 percent, a spread of 0.1 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $14K on the bid side and $2K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-30 05:59 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 49 percent, with the NO outcome at 51 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-30 06:03 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.