PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?" resolved No; the market last priced it below 1% on Aug 2, 2026, and at 1% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
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Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 15, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jul 15, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Jul 30, 2026) to 13% (Jul 17, 2026), across 637 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 9% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2911873
Kresmion, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-08-02, https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-july-31. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2911873.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-july-31">Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.