PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?" resolved Yes; the market last priced it above 99% on Aug 3, 2026, and at 94% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
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Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 18, 2026 to Aug 3, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jul 18, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from 32% (Jul 19, 2026) to above 99% (Aug 1, 2026), across 468 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 55% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 86% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 100% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 100% |
How this market resolved
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munit...
Live markets in the same event
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More geopolitics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled geopolitics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2952486
Kresmion, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-08-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-31-20260716224448968-384-155-519-798-243. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2952486.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-31-20260716224448968-384-155-519-798-243">Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.