Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 24% as of Oct 15, 2026, 10:34 UTC, up from 20% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Aug 29, 2026, this market has traded between 14 percent (Oct 6, 2026) and 47 percent (Sep 16, 2026), across 1,548 recorded prices. The current price of 24 percent is 4.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (20 percent), and 16.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (41 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | 39% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 35% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 44% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 30% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 19% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 17% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 20% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 24% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 24 percent, with the NO outcome at 76 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3865962
Kresmion, "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-dip-to-65000-by-december-31-2026-from-august-24. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3865962.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-dip-to-65000-by-december-31-2026-from-august-24">Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 10:34 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.