Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 24, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 74 percent YES, up 6.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $482K of lifetime volume.
One message when it happens. Nothing else. No account needed.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 15, 2026, this market has traded between 16 percent (Aug 17, 2026) and 77 percent (Aug 24, 2026), across 1,010 recorded prices. The current price of 74 percent is 56.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (18 percent), and 48.5 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (25 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 22% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 27% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 22% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 24% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 18% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 70% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 74% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 74 percent, with the NO outcome at 26 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets in the same category, priced by the same venue.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-24 17:57 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.