Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

32%

24h change

+3.0pp

7d change

-1.0pp

Volume

$107K

Resolves by

Jan 1, 2027

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?76%Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?52%Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?52%Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?35%Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?28%Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?18%Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?18%Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?13%

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.