Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
Part of: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 38% as of Oct 15, 2026, 10:34 UTC, up from 20% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 1, 2026, this market has traded between 12 percent (Sep 21, 2026) and 46 percent (Sep 2, 2026), across 1,444 recorded prices. The current price of 38 percent is 18.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (20 percent), and 4.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (34 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | 33% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 35% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 22% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 13% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 17% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 25% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 38% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 38 percent, with the NO outcome at 62 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
More crypto markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 3865999
Kresmion, "Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-ethereum-dip-to-2000-by-december-31-2026-from-august-24. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 3865999.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-ethereum-dip-to-2000-by-december-31-2026-from-august-24">Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 10:34 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.